Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
